A Summer Box Office Forecast – Part 2

Continuing on from Part One of the forecast, we take a look at the biggest blockbuster releases of the upcoming summer months; here, we begin in mid-June and continue throughout the summer season, up until the end of July (and maybe a few outlining August releases to spoil you!).

Transformers: The Last Knight (June 21)

Opening (extended) domestic weekend: $60,000,000 – $70,000,000
Domestic total: $145,000,000 – $160,000,000
Worldwide total: $700,000,000

It’s rather difficult to gauge the Transformers series: the emerging pattern appears to be a decreased domestic totals with increased foreign figures to boot a stronger worldwide haul. The Last Knight could very well continue those trajectories – although the schedules is a lot more packed than it was in 2014 (where the franchises’ fourth film became the highest-grossing film of the year) and the general feeling is that the franchise will begin to slip backwards.

Fifth time will likely not continue the charm, all things considered, with a lower (longer) opening weekend (around $65 million) and domestic total ($160 million, tops) expected. As with many franchises nowadays, overseas may power the film to become one of the higher-grossing films of the summer: China have a particular affiliation with the series – Age of Extinction took ten days to become the highest-grossing film ever in the territory in 2014 – and will determine the success Transformers 5. Even with a slight downturn in grosses, China could still muster around $250 million and help aid a predicted $700 million worldwide total.

FORECAST: While not expected to reach the franchises’ sunniest days, Transformers: The Last Knight will radiate more than enough heat to sustain this franchise – even if we see spots of rain and franchise gloom in America (and perhaps Europe).

Despicable Me 3 (June 30)

Opening domestic weekend: $80,000,000 – $100,000,000 (3 day)
Domestic total: $232,000,000 – $310,000,000
Worldwide total: $850,000,000 – $1,000,000,000

Those yellow minions are not for everyone but they’ve found their box office calling, with the 2015 spin-off solo adventure cracking the coveted $1 billion milestone. Illumination’s Despicable Me 3 is delivered to us at the end of June, hoping to build on the Despicable franchise and match, or exceed, the Minions spin-off success.

An over/under $90 million opening weekend is to be expected, dependent on how enthusiastic the word is (early reviews are indicating something positive and family-friend options like this tend to be critic proof, particularly over opening weekend). Using the same 2.9 weekend-to-final multiplier that Minions achieved, we should be expecting a $232,000,000 – $290,000,000 domestic total; it will probably register on the higher end, with the possibility of a $300 million total, considering the holidays will be fast approaching and weekdays boost higher totals than an out-of-season weekday.

It could hit $1 billion worldwide, but the release of Cars 3 just a couple of weeks previous could eat into that success, so we should head in with some reluctancy and have that watermark in mind as a possibility, not a necessity. Plus, kids grow up fast these days – could franchise fatigue be approaching, particularly if younger audiences feel they have outgrown the yellow tearaways? It’s possible.

FORECAST: Whichever way you spin it, Despicable Me 3 is making Illumination some fine money; the only question is how high the temperature will climb and whether or not it will smash that $1 billion milestone.

Spider-Man: Homecoming (July 7)

Opening domestic weekend: $95,000,000 – $115,000,000
Domestic total: $260,000,000 – $290,000,000
Worldwide total: $800,000,000 – $900,000,000

Spiderman enters his third reincarnation, although Homecoming arrives on the back of a mixed response: his introduction in Captain America: Civil War was largely well-received and many seem excited to see how the Marvel Cinematic Universe incorporate him into the fold; but others could be growing tired of the superhero (Tom Holland is the third actor in as many decades to don the web-shooting suit), with some bubbling frustration regarding the onslaught of posters, including one crowded sheet that become infamous online.

People are likely to come out in force on opening weekend just to see what the fuss is about –  but where it heads from there will largely depend on reception and word of mouth. I’m plumping a little lower than most with my opening weekend forecast of $95 – 115 million, considering the busy slate and incredible legs of Wonder Woman (seriously, did anyone expect those tiny weekend-to-weekend drops?!). A final domestic total of $250-$300 million seems a safe bet; that’s a lot wider than my other predictions, but I think this one, more so than most others, will rely heavily on positive reception to stand out from the competition for consumers.

If we work out the mean of my projected final domestic total – $275 million – and assume a 35/65 domestic/overseas split similar to franchise-starter The Amazing Spider-Man back in 2012, we are looking at a $785 million overseas total for Homecoming – or, a few million above the last reboot launch. Attaching the Marvel logo to the front of the film, and understanding Marvel’s early international rollout will swing in favor of the overseas figure, could push the film up to $800 million and beyond – although I’d cap it at $900 million.

FORECAST: It might not be as sunny for Spider-Man: Homecoming as Marvel may have hoped but they’re still likely to be lapping up the summer heat and swimming in box office dollar.

War For The Planet of the Apes (July 14)

Opening domestic weekend: $60,000,000 – $70,000,000
Domestic total: $165,000,000 – $185,000,000
Worldwide total: $550,000,000 – $650,000,000

In Part One, I called Alien: Covenant a ‘blockbuster for adults’ – and War For The Planet of the Apes too wears that badge proudly.  After the relative underperformance of Covenant, I head into the new Planet of the Apes film with a little trepidation, regarding projections, and I do question the film’s mid-summer release date – but whichever way it’s framed, War For The Planet of the Apes will be a different kind of success this summer.

The previous film, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, captured lightning in a bottle, powering a worldwide total north of $700 million – and while this new film should not be expected to mimic that performance (given the notable downturn in sequel recuperation over the years), it easily could. Early whispers suggest War could be the blockbuster of the summer, but let that not cloud our judgment too much, considering no official reviews have yet been registers. We’re looking at a domestic opening weekend of around $60 million but adults may choose to rush out quicker to see something aimed at them on the big screen, after most gave Covenant a pass. Domestic total could shoot as high as $185 million if the word of mouth is as stellar as indicated.

I’m not expecting the worldwide figure to climb as high as it did for Dawn, as the marketplace was remarkably friendlier and less heated in that notably quiet year, but something around the $600 million is well within reach. As mentioned, the mid-July release date seems peculiar to this film fan and maybe War could have thrived in an off-season period – but it could allow it to stand-out enough to encourage parents to leave the kids with a babysitter in the otherwise family-friend cinematic environment.

FORECAST: War For The Planet of the Apes will hit a different kind of summer sweet spot – think of it as a light frost for those more interested in a skiing holiday, equally as rewarding and relaxing, just in a slightly different packaging.

Dunkirk (July 21)

Opening domestic weekend: $40,000,000 – $50,000,000
Domestic total: $140,000,000 – $160,000,000
Worldwide total: $400,000,000 – $500,000,000

This is where the going could get tough. Releasing War For The Planet of the Apes and Dunkirk in the space of a week seems… dangerous. Apes has franchise links, a proven track record and a built-in audience going for it, while Dunkirk is very much promoting itself through its acclaimed director, Christopher Nolan. While the marketing is evidently striving for a wider demographic than Apes, Dunkirk runs the risk of its subject matter (war) and lack of proven stars putting families off a day trip to the cinema.

That said, it’s never wise to bet against Mr. Nolan – arguably the most acclaimed and celebrated director of the decade. If the reviews are positive and the whispers of award season success are correct, then seats will be filled; but a more lukewarm reception could mean Dunkirk struggles to find an audience beyond Nolan’s dedicated followers. A domestic weekend of around $45 million seems a fair bet, with the potential to head a lot higher if it catches on, but the possibility to fall due to its close proximity to Apes. Don’t rule out a leggy run, as even if it opens slightly on the smaller side, it could be powered to $160 million domestically if it plays out anything like Best Picture nominee, Hacksaw Ridge.

Worldwide is just as difficult a picture to call. The UK will likely be the biggest heavyweight fueling the overseas total due to its notable British cast (Cillian Murphy, Mark Rylance, Tom Hardy and, interestingly, Harry Styles) and Europe could follow suit, pointing towards a figure of $400-$500 million. It has the potential and buzz to become one of the biggest war films of all time but taking part in the summer season brawl could actually work against it.

FORECAST: This one is a little foggy and as unpredictable as the British weather itself. I’m being very, very careful with Dunkirk but my fingers are crossed for sun…

Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (July 21)

Opening domestic weekend: $25,000,000 – $35,000,000
Domestic total: $70,000,000 – $85,000,000
Worldwide total: $225,000,000 – $300,000,000

Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planet (or Valerian henceforth, to save web space) is the biggest French production of all time, reportedly clocking in with a production budget of around $220 million. That is an insane amount of money to be thrown at an original, unproven production (it is based on a popular graphic novel but will be completely new for many) with no A-List names or track record attached to it. The writing’s on the wall for this to become the summer’s biggest box office bomb…

I cannot see the domestic opening weekend climbing above $35 million – and that’s being generous; while Valerian may benefit from being one of the last blockbusters in the game, the forecast does not look too hopeful, at least in America. We could be looking at an $80 million domestic total (if the reception is kind) and considering the film is being promoted as a 3D/IMAX event, it could scrape together a few extras dollars from the ticketing increase – but I’m otherwise pessimistic about Valerian’s outlook.

It’s possible overseas may go crazy and recuperate some of the cost, with its country of origin likely to be a little more enthusiastic than elsewhere in Europe. China, typically lovers of special effects and stunts (think of Transformers and Fast 8 success), may shower the film in glory. In all honestly, I’m not overly hopeful we will get beyond $300 million worldwide with this one – and even that’s a stretch.

FORECAST: Valerian would not be faced with such an uphill battle if it wasn’t for the extortionate budget – but when something clocks in at over $200 million, and is unlikely to get beyond $300 million, a natural disaster is just around the corner. This will no doubt be a stormy, stormy summer for EuropaCorp.

The Emoji Movie (July 28)

Opening domestic weekend: $28,000,000 – $40,000,000
Domestic total: $100,000,000 – $130,000,000
Worldwide total: $325,000,000 – $375,000,000

The Emoji Movie has been the brunt of social media’s jokes over the past week, inspiring cries of ‘IS THIS WAS HOLLYWOOD HAS COME TOO?!’ – but as long as the budget is kept at a reasonable level, Sony should be looking to make a profit with their latest animation. It’s hard to imagine reviews being too kind to this one but animations tend to weather negative reception (The Boss Baby and Storks both made a tidy profit) and end of summer legs should help this sustain it in the marketplace.

The Emoji Movie could open with anything between the late-twenties to the early-forties, with something around the $34-37 million mark most likely. It could easily leg it to north of $100 million in the US, with the possibility of reaching closer to $150 million if it catches on and those late-summer legs come into effect. Looking at the worldwide numbers, if we take the same 35/65 domestic/overseas split experienced by The Boss Baby earlier in the year, we should expect something between $325-375 million for this late July film, more than enough for Sony if the production cost has been kept in check.

FORECAST: After Sony’s stormy 2016, The Emoji Movie could be the break in the clouds they need. It won’t be a blazing success but they should be able to sun themselves with the box office receipts.

The Dark Tower (August 4)

Opening domestic weekend: $30,000,000 – $40,000,000
Domestic total: $80,000,000 – $100,000,000
Worldwide total: $200,000,000 – $250,000,00

Arguably the last ‘big’ release of the summer season, The Dark Tower will hope to stand up to the competition and use the late-summer kick-off date for a fruitful run at the end of the season. Based on Stephen King’s novel series and released through Columbia Pictures, it’s difficult to know what to expect from the long-awaited adaptation when you consider that marketing hasn’t really kicked in yet (we are still two months out from the release date) – but we can certainly start guessing, this time utilizing a lot of numbers. Brace yourselves and do bear with…

Let’s plump for a $30 million opening weekend, given the two lead star’s popularity (Matthew McConaughey and Idris Elba each have a sturdy following) and the popularity of King’s work; that would put it squarely between the opening numbers of Dan Brown’s second (Angels & Demons) and third (Inferno) novel adaptations. Stephen King’s highest-grossing film adaptations – well, the ones we have worldwide box office digits for (The Green Mile, 1408 and Secret Window) – show a pretty unanimous 50/50 split between domestic and overseas numbers; with the caveat that foreign markets pull a lot more weight than they did in 1999, 2007 and 2004, respectively. Based on this, let’s assign The Dark Tower a 40/60 split: taking the mean domestic total ($90 million), we would be looking at a worldwide figure of $225 million. Make of that what you will.

FORECAST: With mist* in the way and a lot of time for that to clear, it’s difficult to make a call on The Dark Tower but for now I’ll predict it as a moderated, if slightly underwhelming success; like a cloudy UK holiday to the beach, it won’t be a complete washout but we all hoped for something sunnier.

* I’m chuffed I managed a Stephen King and a weather joke in there. Small things please small minds…

And that is that! Looking back on Part One, my opening weekend predictions were rarely spot on but not totally out of the picture – here’s hoping to a bit more success with Part Two…