A Summer Box Office Forecast – Part 1

While it is looking more likely that an all-year round blockbuster slate is imminent, thanks to an increased number of releases plumping for either the pre-Summer window (March and April) or the festive year-end slot (November and December), most of the box office prosper is still contained in the Sumner season.

In that three-month window, where school and college is all but a distant memory, the sun is out for longer meaning the days feel prolonged and television series are taking a break, the blockbusters come out to play, all wanting their slice of the box office pie. 2017 is no different, with a varied schedule offering something for everyone; but how will these blockbusters perform in such a heated environment? Just what can we expect from the 2017 summer slate?

With the help of box office trends from the past, Box Office Mojo, experimentation with numbers and some downright speculation on my part, let’s take a look at the forecast for some of the most prominent cinema releases this blockbuster season…

Be aware that dates are for the US release of the film and that titles may differ for each region.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (May 5)

Opening domestic weekend: $120,000,000 – $160,000,000
Domestic total: $380,000,000 – $500,000,000
Worldwide total: $1,050,000,000

Marking the official start of the summer season, Disney charges out of the gate with Marvel’s Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2, the sequel to a beloved superhero hit that launched a lucrative franchise back in 2014. Beginning with a $94 million opening weekend and legging it to a $333 million domestic total (the third-highest domestic total of the year), the buzzy original made a certified star out of lead Chris Pratt and merited celebration for its more eclectic take on the superhero genre. Volume 2 is set to impress.

Sequel, Vol 2, is set to continue Marvel’s hot streak, expected only to grow from that solid first outing. With critics and general audiences on side, a family-friendly PG-13 rating, strong pre-sale figures and a solid marketing campaign, the film is looking at a $120-160 million opening weekend, with a final domestic total of $380-500 million. Sprinting out the gate with big international numbers, $101 million, it has a high chance of cracking the elusive $1 billion milestone when it wraps up worldwide, and although the competition will be more fierce on the second go-round (its early summer release and status as a sequel may mean it is more front-loaded), you really can’t complain with numbers like that.

FORECAST: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 will be basking in the summer box office sunshine, setting its sights on record temperatures with next-to-no chance of storms. This one will be SCORCHING.

Alien: Covenant (May 19)

Opening domestic weekend: $45,000,000 – $55,000,000
Domestic total: $120,000,000 – $165,000,000
Worldwide total: $450,000,000

With Alien: Covenant, 20th Century Fox continue their unofficial ‘Blockbusters For Adults’ series, placing the fifth sequel in the groundbreaking sci-fi franchise in an early summer slot. Acting as prestigious counter-programming to the more family-friendly fare of the season, Covenant looks set to stand-out in the marketplace due to its R-rating and suitably brooding trailers and marketing thus far.

As with most genre offerings and adult-skewing releases, early reviews and reception will be paramount to its success; unless the reviews are particularly disastrous or glowing, we are poised for an opening weekend between $45-55 million, with room to grow either side of that. It may pick up more mid-week dollar than a typical early summer season release, and we could be looking at a domestic total between $120-165 million when all is said or done. Worldwide is a little more difficult to figure out; a $450 million worldwide total does not seem too far out of the question, particularly considering that prequel Prometheus pulled itself over the $400 million mark without namesake recognition. However, the last film in the series to use the ‘Alien’ name was 1997’s Resurrection, meaning we cannot really gauge the weight of the IP 19 years on. Either way, this will be a very interesting one to keep an eye on…

FORECAST: As long as the production and marketing budget has been kept in check, the outlook is generally sunny for Alien: Covenant, if reviews and reception are relatively positive; without that though, there is chance of a storm on the horizon.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (May 26)

Opening domestic weekend: $80,000,000- $90,000,000 (4 day weekend)
Domestic total: $170,000,000 – $210,000,000
Worldwide total: $650,000,000

Now then, Pirates 5 (easier to write than listing the subtitle variations of the Johnny Depp-leading franchise) is swimming into cinemas on the back of $1 billion-grossing entry; the only downside is that said film was released six years ago in a very different blockbuster landscape, with a less enthusiastic critical response than the numbers would have you believe. Plus, Depp is hardly the box office draw he was back then, with his appeal somewhat dwindling after personal controversies were smeared in the press last year.

A release date over Memorial Day weekend looks set to give the action-adventure a monetary bump, with an expected $80 million over the four days – an impressive total but a notable comedown from the franchises’ three sequels. That could manifest into a $170-$210 million domestic total, with the hope that overseas will do most of the leg work, propelling it towards a $650 million total. Large foreign receipts are required for this to be a success, with reports suggesting that $325 million has been pumped into the production budget alone. That means adventure number five is required to storm the seas with vigour to be worth the trip.

FORECAST: Rocky seas are ahead for Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, with the swashbuckling adventure required to perform at peak potential to prevent a very slow and painful death (perhaps akin to drowning on the seven seas…). I see storms ahead for this one…

Baywatch (May 26)

Opening domestic weekend: $40,000,000 (4 day weekend)
Domestic total: $120,000,000 – $150,000,000
Worldwide total: $350,000,000

Baywatch, a steamy action-comedy revival, has box office heavyweight Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson (fresh off the success of The Fate of the Furious) and heartthrob Zac Efron in its corner, both hoping to woo cinemagoers on May 26. A cinematic adaptation of the television series, Baywatch is hoping to make a splash opposite the aforementioned Pirates, using IP nostalgia to fuel a box office fire, as well as unashamedly plugging its R-rating. The Rock, a box office draw, will bring in the dudes, while Efron could handle the ladies (and, to be fair, vice versa). It’s quite promising.

Few examples of R-rated comedies exist across the upcoming summer season, meaning that Baywatch can rule the genre roost for a few weeks at least. While the sheer volume of competition means that films stick around in theatres for considerably less time nowadays, Baywatch does boast the benefit of being fairly unique in the marketplace, likely pushing its four-day opening weekend to around $40,000,000. If it performs like Ghostbusters (similarly, an ’80s-born IP), it will make it to around $120 million, with the possibility of going higher with half-decent reviews. Worldwide, you are looking at $300,000,000 to $350,000,000, once again depending on quality.

FORECAST: Baywatch could well be spending its days at the beach sunning itself with box office sunshine, if it has kept its budget at a moderate figure. If it performs well this time out, future installments in the franchise could see the series basking in more sunshine down the line.

Wonder Woman (June 2)

Opening domestic weekend: $80,000,000 – $90,000,000
Domestic total: $220,000,000 – $250,000,000
Worldwide total: $650,000,000

It is still early days in the DCEU and Wonder Woman has so much going for it – but a fair bit going against it too. Considered the first female-led superhero and first live-action Wonder Woman film, audiences will no doubt be curious enough to check this out, whether on a whim or as a long-time comic book fan. The trailers have sold a historical-set superhero flick, forming an identity outside the genre conventions. However, as we all know, the three previous DCEU films – Man of Steel, Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice and Suicide Squad – have been received less than favourably by critics and audiences, with Wonder Woman facing an uphill battle in the face of all that has preceded it.

Early tracking suggests an opening of around $80,000,000, with just over a month to go to pull in additional audience members. It has the ability to swing upwards, with general audiences possibly implored to see what the fuss is about. We should be seeing a domestic total of north of $220 million, perhaps climbing as high as $250,000,000, quality dependent. Worldwide should reach around $650 million and will be a great indicator for November’s Justice League.

FORECAST: In the face of a rocky Cinematic Universe history, the storm may break for Wonder Woman. The production budget has been kept in check so it does not need to break record to find some box office sunshine this June.

The Mummy (June 9)

Opening domestic weekend: $45,000,000 – $55,000,000
Domestic total: $120,000,000 – $140,000,000
Worldwide total: $400,000,000

Another summer reboot, The Mummy is the next chapter in Universal’s growing Monster Cinematic Universe. Tom Cruise takes the lead role with a genuinely sturdy supporting cast in tow, with marketing selling a horror-action hybrid. Considered darker than most other blockbusters this season and on the back of Kong: Skull Island, it could prove to be a small-scale hit – but everything looks a little lacklustre at this early juncture.

Although Cruise is one of the biggest names in Hollywood, his ability to draw audiences in appears to be waning slightly, so we shouldn’t expect to rely on the name too much. It’s likely to be an over/under $50 million domestic weekend, although it wouldn’t be a surprise to see it dip further if the reviews are favourable. A 2.6 weekend-to-final multiplier would give the film a $120 – $140 million domestic total, meaning Universal will be hoping for an overseas helping hand. Furthermore, while a production budget has not been confirmed, the special effects-fuelled trailers suggest this is not a cheap blockbuster…

FORECAST: Matching the moody marketing so far, The Mummy may be in for summer showers and, depending on budget, could be one of the summer’s biggest washouts.

Cars 3 (June 16)

Opening domestic weekend: $70,000,000 – $80,000,000
Domestic total: $225,000,000 – $255,000,000
Worldwide total: $650,000,000

Cars 3 comes racing into cinemas in the middle of June, pulling up shortly before Despicable Me 3, giving it a solid two weeks in play with little in the way of competition. Disney Pixar’s second sequel in the Cars franchise follows up the only ‘rotten’ film from the Pixar filmmakers; while number three looks like a course correction, the franchise doesn’t inspire the same interest as other animated properties. While likely a success, it’s worth keeping an eye on Cars’ engine…

With Cars and Cars 2 each opening between $60 – $66 million, we should expect – considering Pixar’s current hot streak – a slight increase upon opening, perhaps around $70-$80 million. Where it goes from there will significantly depend on how well it is received; correcting the mistakes of number two could see the film climb as high, if not higher, than the first; a product even less favoured than the sequel could see it land at around $200 million. However, in placing my faith in Pixar and going out on a limb, expect something closer to $250 million than $200 million.

FORECAST: With lightning striking a third time, expect Cars 3 to perform better than its predecessor, offering Pixar a tidy profit for their troubles – although, they may see it as a little overcast in comparison to the record-breaking streak they have recently reentered.

What summer movies do you think will perform the best?