Should Disney Give Into Hackers In Possession of PIRATES 5? Honestly, No.

In the past few weeks, Walt Disney Studios have supposedly been granted an ultimatum: pay an anonymous group of hackers – who claim to be in possession of the fifth Pirates of the Caribbean film – a minor ransom sum, or see their next big release leaked (in twenty minute chunks) online. With Disney shrugging off the threat and nothing arising in the way of the cyber group actually acting on their promise, this ‘scandal’ may be simply a hoax and be over as soon as it has begun.

Realizing that I have about as much influence over a Hollywood behemoth like Disney as I do over the unpredictable Great British weather (I started writing this piece with glowing sunshine; wrapping it up, it is pouring with rain), I would still like to go out on a limb and make them a suggestion – don’t cough up a single penny. While it may cost you a few hundred in box office receipts, ultimately the financial harm is likely to be minor in the grand scheme of things and you can work it to your advantage in a number of ways.

Now, first, a few disclaimers. We all know that piracy is a bad, bad thing; many a film and numerous studios depend on their projects succeeding (both critically and, arguably more important, commercially) in order to continue regenerating and producing content. Piracy eats into that financial success and can, ultimately, send a release – and subsequently, a studio – into a very precarious, financially risky place. Juggernaut studios like Disney though, with their Star Wars, Superheroes and Princesses in abundance, can afford that damage – and a leaked Pirates 5 may in fact help alleviate concerns heading into their packed summer slate.

A Leak In The Ship?

While I cannot yet comment personally on the quality of the Johnny Depp-starring sequel, early reviews have indicated that it is not something to write home about. At the time of this article entering draft, the film has scored a decent $78.4 million Memorial Day weekend – likely heading for a domestic total of $160 – $190 million. That is an absolutely reasonable sum and many franchises would be celebrating such an opening, five films into a franchise that has shown weathered domestic results – that is, if the film didn’t cost a reported $230 million before marketing and distribution fees are factored into the equation.

So, where does that leave poor, poor Disney? With a potentially costly experiment in franchise revival on their hands. While they can probably afford a miss with a summer slate chock full of almost-certain victories, stockholders and general analysts are likely to be upset if a theoretical biggie misses the mark, thus demolishing some of the profits made up by the likes of Cars 3, Spider-Man: Homecoming and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (to name just a few). That’s why a leaked Pirates could save the studio face.

With my cynical side rearing its ugly head, a leaked version of Pirates could possibly act as the perfect cover for an underperforming Pirates. Dead Men Tell No Tales (or Salazar’s Revenge, depending on where in the world you are reading this from) is hardly on the top of anyone’s ‘most anticipated’ list and it is not expected to best – or even approach – the record-setting success of Pirates 2 or 4, both of which surpassed $1 billion worldwide. Not only would Disney be affirming that they are not a juggernaut to be messed with, likely winning Hollywood brownie points in the process, but they could use it as the perfect defense too.

Disney could potentially cover up an underperforming summer biggie by using the excuse that a high-quality leak has eaten into their profit. They could claim, if they so wish, that its appearance on film-sharing sites has reduced the need for more casual and lackadaisical cinema-goers to turn up for a screening, instead deciding to enjoy the entertainment from their own home. With the increase in home media technology, it is not difficult to believe that this may be the case for many people – particularly with how costly a cinema trip can be and with the often overwhelming amount on offer; people cannot do it all, quite frankly.

A Get Out Clause For An Underwhelming Pirates?

In an attempt to appease demanding stockholders who may begin to waver and question their investment with a big misfire like Pirates 5 on the table, reasoning like this could soften the disheartened and provide some rest-bite and holdover until the next Disney release rakes in the money. And while there would be no definitive proof available, it may be that the film loses less money from lost box office sales than it would for actually paying the supposedly minor fee.

Blockbusters, while not completely immune, are likely to suffer less from a leak than a smaller scale release. Family-orientated films are as much about the experience as the film itself – while you or I, for instance, may decide to stream the film from the comfort of our own home, a family of four are unlikely to gather around the computer screen, pushing and shoving to get the best view. Instead, they will go to the cinema, potentially pay the 3D up-charge, and indulge in the comforts and luxuries of a family trip to the cinema and everything it represents for a family.

With the cinema experience, you get a heightened sense of the visuals and the effects (something you can rarely replicate in the comfort of your own home), as well as obvious bonding of the whole family – something possibly lost in translation without the effort of attending a screening, fueled by an atmosphere and enthusiasm. While I’m not suggesting that leaks do not impact these larger releases, many will pick a cinema visit that provides the thrills, excitement and impressive visuals found in a bigger release over a smaller-scale, character-driven picture without splashy sets almost always. It is why the typical Oscar contender does not make as much as your average summer blockbuster during theatrical run.

Disney, Don’t Pay A Penny

For example, Captain America: Civil War was the victim of a DVD-quality leak on its opening weekend this time last year but still managed to see the year through as the highest-grossing release of 2016; The Fate of the Furious, opening just a few weeks ago, scored the largest worldwide gross of all time, despite its reportedly being live-streamed by an unscrupulous attendee for the whole Internet to consume. We can never confirm how much money has been lost through illegal streaming but it almost entirely impacts the profits of a smaller picture over a flashier, visually-fueled blockbuster.

Bearing in mind though that any attempt to suggest that Pirates is going to be a flop is a silly thing to assert – after all, this franchise has films that surpassed the $1 billion barrier on a number of occasions, it performs well internationally and will likely turn further profit during its post-theatrical life. Nobody expects the film to perform at peak potential (largely because 3D is not as noteworthy as it once was, the competition is hotter and Depp is not the star he once was) and the comedown would have to be among the biggest in cinema history for it to be a total wipeout. That’s pretty unlikely but stranger things have happened.

So, Disney, if you are reading this; don’t fork out a penny. Not only is Pirates 5 unlikely to be massively impacted by an early leak (as evident with two of the biggest films of all time managing to pull in humongous numbers in the face of early leaks), but you could wonderfully twist the outcome to appease stockholder’s fears. You can place the blame of an unsatisfying Pirates 5 performance in the laps of the hackers who seek to tear down the empire and storm the blockbuster’s seas. It would be a wonderfully twisted way to seek complete Hollywood domination – and with another record-setting year on the cards, it seems they are one step closer to doing it.

If you were Disney, would you cough up the money and protect your assets, or let the hackers try and spoil your fun? Tell us your thoughts in the comments below!